CSM Reşiţa 1–1 Unirea Dej: Result & Stats | Liga II

CSM Reşiţa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Unirea Dej

3/30/2024

Liga II · Relegation Round - 1Stadionul Mircea Chivu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

CSM Reşiţa41%

×Draw28%

Unirea Dej31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSM ReşiţaExpected goals in this matchUnirea Dej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.05

CSM Reşiţa

1.26

Unirea Dej

1.05

CSM Reşiţa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 38 away

1.40

creates per match

0.89

1.22

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

CSM Reşiţa

1.40

Unirea Dej

0.89

allows per match

CSM Reşiţa

1.22

Unirea Dej

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Unirea Dej+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSM Reşiţa ↓

Unirea Dej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CSM Reşiţa or draw

69%

CSM Reşiţa or Unirea Dej

72%

Draw or Unirea Dej

59%

Winning margin

CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+

18%

Unirea Dej wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals

72%

CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals

36%

CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals

13%

Unirea Dej 1+ goals

65%

Unirea Dej 2+ goals

28%

Unirea Dej 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)

57%

Unirea Dej (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSM Reşiţa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Unirea Dej away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.40 + Unirea Dej defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Unirea Dej attack 0.89 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CSM Reşiţa scores more

41%

level

28%

Unirea Dej scores more

31%

CSM Reşiţa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CSM Reşiţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff