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Unirea Dej vs Concordia — Liga II 2018

Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Concordia
Concordia
3/16/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Municipal Dej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Unirea Dej38%
×Draw28%
Concordia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Dej
1.22
Concordia
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 89 away

creates per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
Concordia
1.09

allows per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
Concordia
1.27

finishing

Unirea Dej+0.00on par
Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Dej ↓

Concordia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unirea Dej or draw
66%
Unirea Dej or Concordia
72%
Draw or Concordia
62%

Winning margin

Unirea Dej wins by 2+
16%
Concordia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Unirea Dej 1+ goals
70%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
34%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
12%
Concordia 1+ goals
68%
Concordia 2+ goals
31%
Concordia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
53%
Concordia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Dej at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 41 matches

Concordia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Dej attack 1.17 + Concordia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Concordia attack 1.09 + Unirea Dej defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Unirea Dej scores more
38%
level
28%
Concordia scores more
34%

Unirea Dej at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Unirea Dej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Unirea Dej 0–2 Concordia

Concordia beat Unirea Dej 2-0 in Liga II on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Dej in Dej.