Concordia 1–0 Unirea Dej: Result & Stats | Liga II

Concordia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Unirea Dej

9/30/2021

Liga II · Round 9Stadionul Concordia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Concordia44%

×Draw29%

Unirea Dej27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcordiaExpected goals in this matchUnirea Dej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.92

Concordia

1.24

Unirea Dej

0.92

Concordia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 38 away

1.35

creates per match

0.89

0.94

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Concordia

1.35

Unirea Dej

0.89

allows per match

Concordia

0.94

Unirea Dej

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia+0.00on par

Unirea Dej+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia ↓

Unirea Dej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Concordia or draw

73%

Concordia or Unirea Dej

71%

Draw or Unirea Dej

56%

Winning margin

Concordia wins by 2+

19%

Unirea Dej wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Concordia 1+ goals

71%

Concordia 2+ goals

35%

Concordia 3+ goals

13%

Unirea Dej 1+ goals

60%

Unirea Dej 2+ goals

23%

Unirea Dej 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Concordia (draw refunded)

61%

Unirea Dej (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

Unirea Dej away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia attack 1.35 + Unirea Dej defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Unirea Dej attack 0.89 + Concordia defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Concordia scores more

44%

level

29%

Unirea Dej scores more

27%

Concordia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Concordia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff