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Unirea Dej vs Brașov Steagul Renaște — Liga II 2018

Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brașov Steagul Renaște
Brașov Steagul Renaște
10/22/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 11Stadionul Municipal Dej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unirea Dej29%
×Draw26%
Brașov Steagul Renaște45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Dej
1.11
Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.46

Brașov Steagul Renaște creates 32% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.76

allows per match

Unirea Dej
1.17
Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.06

finishing

Unirea Dej+0.00on par
Brașov Steagul Renaște+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Dej ↓

Brașov Steagul Renaște →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Unirea Dej or draw
55%
Unirea Dej or Brașov Steagul Renaște
74%
Draw or Brașov Steagul Renaște
71%

Winning margin

Unirea Dej wins by 2+
11%
Brașov Steagul Renaște wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Unirea Dej 1+ goals
67%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
30%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
10%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 1+ goals
77%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 2+ goals
43%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
39%
Brașov Steagul Renaște (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Dej at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 41 matches

Brașov Steagul Renaște away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Dej attack 1.17 + Brașov Steagul Renaște defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Brașov Steagul Renaște attack 1.76 + Unirea Dej defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Unirea Dej scores more
29%
level
26%
Brașov Steagul Renaște scores more
45%

Brașov Steagul Renaște at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brașov Steagul Renaște will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Dej vs Brașov Steagul Renaște

Unirea Dej beat Brașov Steagul Renaște 2-1 in Liga II on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Dej in Dej.