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Brașov Steagul Renaște vs Unirea Dej — Liga II 2018

Brașov Steagul Renaște
Brașov Steagul Renaște
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
4/16/2022Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 4Stadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Brașov Steagul Renaște55%
×Draw23%
Unirea Dej21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.78
Unirea Dej
1.01

Brașov Steagul Renaște creates 76% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 38 away

creates per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște
2.44
Unirea Dej
0.89

allows per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.13
Unirea Dej
1.13

finishing

Brașov Steagul Renaște+0.00on par
Unirea Dej+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brașov Steagul Renaște ↓

Unirea Dej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brașov Steagul Renaște or draw
79%
Brașov Steagul Renaște or Unirea Dej
77%
Draw or Unirea Dej
45%

Winning margin

Brașov Steagul Renaște wins by 2+
31%
Unirea Dej wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brașov Steagul Renaște 1+ goals
83%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 2+ goals
53%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 3+ goals
26%
Unirea Dej 1+ goals
64%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
27%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Brașov Steagul Renaște (draw refunded)
72%
Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brașov Steagul Renaște at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Unirea Dej away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brașov Steagul Renaște attack 2.44 + Unirea Dej defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Unirea Dej attack 0.89 + Brașov Steagul Renaște defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brașov Steagul Renaște scores more
55%
level
23%
Unirea Dej scores more
21%

Brașov Steagul Renaște at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Brașov Steagul Renaște will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Brașov Steagul Renaște 0–2 Unirea Dej

Unirea Dej beat Brașov Steagul Renaște 2-0 in Liga II on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Tineretului in Braşov.