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Unirea Constanța vs Ripensia Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
4/29/2023Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 6Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Unirea Constanța26%
×Draw24%
Ripensia Timisoara51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Constanța
1.16
Ripensia Timisoara
1.73

Ripensia Timisoara creates 49% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 70 away

creates per match

Unirea Constanța
0.83
Ripensia Timisoara
1.03

allows per match

Unirea Constanța
2.42
Ripensia Timisoara
1.49

finishing

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par
Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Constanța ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Unirea Constanța or draw
49%
Unirea Constanța or Ripensia Timisoara
76%
Draw or Ripensia Timisoara
74%

Winning margin

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
10%
Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
69%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
32%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
11%
Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
82%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
52%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
34%
Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Constanța at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Constanța attack 0.83 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Unirea Constanța defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Unirea Constanța scores more
26%
level
24%
Ripensia Timisoara scores more
51%

Ripensia Timisoara at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Unirea Constanța 2–0 Ripensia Timisoara

Unirea Constanța beat Ripensia Timisoara 2-0 in Liga II on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Clinceni - Arena 1 in Clinceni.