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Ripensia Timisoara vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
10/22/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 11Stadionul Electrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara60%
×Draw20%
Unirea Constanța20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ripensia Timisoara
2.17
Unirea Constanța
1.16

Ripensia Timisoara creates 87% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.09
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.24
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw
80%
Ripensia Timisoara or Unirea Constanța
80%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
40%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
37%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
89%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
64%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
36%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
69%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
32%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
75%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.17

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more
60%
level
20%
Unirea Constanța scores more
20%

Ripensia Timisoara at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ripensia Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ripensia Timisoara vs Unirea Constanța

Ripensia Timisoara beat Unirea Constanța 4-0 in Liga II on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Electrica in Timişoara.