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Unirea Constanța vs Metaloglobus — Liga II 2018

Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
10/29/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 12Stadionul Clinceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Unirea Constanța25%
×Draw24%
Metaloglobus52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Constanța
1.13
Metaloglobus
1.75

Metaloglobus creates 55% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 96 away

creates per match

Unirea Constanța
0.83
Metaloglobus
1.07

allows per match

Unirea Constanța
2.42
Metaloglobus
1.43

finishing

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par
Metaloglobus+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Constanța ↓

Metaloglobus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Unirea Constanța or draw
48%
Unirea Constanța or Metaloglobus
76%
Draw or Metaloglobus
75%

Winning margin

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
9%
Metaloglobus wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
68%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
31%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
11%
Metaloglobus 1+ goals
83%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
52%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
32%
Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Constanța at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

Metaloglobus away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Constanța attack 0.83 + Metaloglobus defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Metaloglobus attack 1.07 + Unirea Constanța defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Unirea Constanța scores more
25%
level
24%
Metaloglobus scores more
52%

Metaloglobus at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Unirea Constanța 1–3 Metaloglobus

Metaloglobus beat Unirea Constanța 3-1 in Liga II on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni in Clinceni.