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Metaloglobus vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
9/25/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 8Stadionul Metaloglobus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Metaloglobus67%
×Draw18%
Unirea Constanța15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metaloglobus
2.31
Unirea Constanța
0.98

Metaloglobus creates 136% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 25 away

creates per match

Metaloglobus
1.39
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

Metaloglobus
0.88
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

Metaloglobus+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metaloglobus ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Metaloglobus or draw
85%
Metaloglobus or Unirea Constanța
82%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
33%

Winning margin

Metaloglobus wins by 2+
44%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Metaloglobus 1+ goals
90%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
67%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
40%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
62%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
26%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
82%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metaloglobus at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metaloglobus attack 1.39 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.31

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + Metaloglobus defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Metaloglobus scores more
67%
level
18%
Unirea Constanța scores more
15%

Metaloglobus at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metaloglobus vs Unirea Constanța

Unirea Constanța beat Metaloglobus 4-1 in Liga II on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Metaloglobus in Bucureşti.