Unirea Constanța 0–2 FC Politehnica Timisoara

Unirea Constanța

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Politehnica Timisoara

8/21/2021

Liga II · Round 4Stadionul Sparta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Unirea Constanța24%

×Draw25%

FC Politehnica Timisoara51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea ConstanțaExpected goals in this matchFC Politehnica Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.63

Unirea Constanța

1.03

FC Politehnica Timisoara

1.63

FC Politehnica Timisoara creates 58% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 70 away

0.83

creates per match

0.83

2.42

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Unirea Constanța

0.83

FC Politehnica Timisoara

0.83

allows per match

Unirea Constanța

2.42

FC Politehnica Timisoara

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Constanța ↓

FC Politehnica Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Unirea Constanța or draw

49%

Unirea Constanța or FC Politehnica Timisoara

75%

Draw or FC Politehnica Timisoara

76%

Winning margin

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+

9%

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals

64%

Unirea Constanța 2+ goals

28%

Unirea Constanța 3+ goals

9%

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals

80%

FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals

48%

FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)

32%

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Constanța at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Constanța attack 0.83 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 0.83 + Unirea Constanța defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Unirea Constanța scores more

24%

level

25%

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more

51%

FC Politehnica Timisoara at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Politehnica Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff