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FC Politehnica Timisoara vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
8/6/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 1Stadionul Ştiinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara62%
×Draw20%
Unirea Constanța18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.16
Unirea Constanța
1.06

FC Politehnica Timisoara creates 104% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.07
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.04
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Politehnica Timisoara ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw
82%
FC Politehnica Timisoara or Unirea Constanța
80%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
38%

Winning margin

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
39%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
88%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
63%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
36%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
65%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
29%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
78%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 1.07 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.16

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
62%
level
20%
Unirea Constanța scores more
18%

FC Politehnica Timisoara at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Politehnica Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Politehnica Timisoara vs Unirea Constanța

FC Politehnica Timisoara beat Unirea Constanța 1-0 in Liga II on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Ştiinţa in Timişoara.