Unirea Constanța 0–2 Dumbrăviţa: Result & Stats

Unirea Constanța

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dumbrăviţa

3/18/2023

Liga II · Relegation Round - 1Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Unirea Constanța28%

×Draw24%

Dumbrăviţa48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea ConstanțaExpected goals in this matchDumbrăviţa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.68

Unirea Constanța

1.24

Dumbrăviţa

1.68

Dumbrăviţa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 54 away

0.83

creates per match

0.94

2.42

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Unirea Constanța

0.83

Dumbrăviţa

0.94

allows per match

Unirea Constanța

2.42

Dumbrăviţa

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Dumbrăviţa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Constanța ↓

Dumbrăviţa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Unirea Constanța or draw

52%

Unirea Constanța or Dumbrăviţa

76%

Draw or Dumbrăviţa

72%

Winning margin

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+

12%

Dumbrăviţa wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals

71%

Unirea Constanța 2+ goals

35%

Unirea Constanța 3+ goals

13%

Dumbrăviţa 1+ goals

81%

Dumbrăviţa 2+ goals

50%

Dumbrăviţa 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)

37%

Dumbrăviţa (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Constanța at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

Dumbrăviţa away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Constanța attack 0.83 + Dumbrăviţa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.24

Dumbrăviţa attack 0.94 + Unirea Constanța defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unirea Constanța scores more

28%

level

24%

Dumbrăviţa scores more

48%

Dumbrăviţa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dumbrăviţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff