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Dumbrăviţa vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

Dumbrăviţa
Dumbrăviţa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
11/26/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 15Stadionul Ştefan Dobay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Dumbrăviţa62%
×Draw20%
Unirea Constanța18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumbrăviţa
2.21
Unirea Constanța
1.10

Dumbrăviţa creates 101% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 25 away

creates per match

Dumbrăviţa
1.19
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

Dumbrăviţa
1.13
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

Dumbrăviţa+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbrăviţa ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dumbrăviţa or draw
82%
Dumbrăviţa or Unirea Constanța
80%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
38%

Winning margin

Dumbrăviţa wins by 2+
39%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dumbrăviţa 1+ goals
89%
Dumbrăviţa 2+ goals
65%
Dumbrăviţa 3+ goals
38%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
67%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
30%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dumbrăviţa (draw refunded)
78%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbrăviţa at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 52 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbrăviţa attack 1.19 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.21

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + Dumbrăviţa defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dumbrăviţa scores more
62%
level
20%
Unirea Constanța scores more
18%

Dumbrăviţa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dumbrăviţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dumbrăviţa vs Unirea Constanța

Dumbrăviţa beat Unirea Constanța 2-0 in Liga II on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Ştefan Dobay in Dumbrăvița.