Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unirea Constanța vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti — Liga II 2018

Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2/26/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 17Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Unirea Constanța19%
×Draw22%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unirea Constanța
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.94

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 94% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 72 away

creates per match

Unirea Constanța
0.83
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.46

allows per match

Unirea Constanța
2.42
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.17

finishing

Unirea Constanța+0.00on par
CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Constanța ↓

CSA Steaua Bucureşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Unirea Constanța or draw
41%
Unirea Constanța or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
78%
Draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
81%

Winning margin

Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
7%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
63%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
26%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
8%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
86%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
58%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
24%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Constanța at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Constanța attack 0.83 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.46 + Unirea Constanța defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Unirea Constanța scores more
19%
level
22%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
59%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unirea Constanța vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti

CSA Steaua Bucureşti beat Unirea Constanța 5-0 in Liga II on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural in Buftea.