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CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CANC
15:00
HT: 2 – 0
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
10/12/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 7Stadionul Steaua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti69%
×Draw17%
Unirea Constanța14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.50
Unirea Constanța
1.02

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 145% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 25 away

creates per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.75
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.97
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA Steaua Bucureşti ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

CSA Steaua Bucureşti or draw
86%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti or Unirea Constanța
83%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
31%

Winning margin

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
47%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
92%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
71%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
45%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
64%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
27%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
84%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.75 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.50

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
69%
level
17%
Unirea Constanța scores more
14%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: CSA Steaua Bucureşti host Unirea Constanța

October 12, 2022: CSA Steaua Bucureşti take on Unirea Constanța in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti host Unirea Constanța at Stadionul Steaua.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.