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UNIRB vs Jequié — Baiano - 2 2019

UNIRB
UNIRB
FT
3 – 1
Jequié
Jequié
11/8/2020Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 3Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

UNIRB54%
×Draw24%
Jequié22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNIRB
1.70
Jequié
0.99

UNIRB creates 72% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

UNIRB
2.46
Jequié
1.21

allows per match

UNIRB
0.77
Jequié
0.93

finishing

UNIRB+0.00on par
Jequié+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNIRB ↓

Jequié →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

UNIRB or draw
78%
UNIRB or Jequié
76%
Draw or Jequié
46%

Winning margin

UNIRB wins by 2+
30%
Jequié wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UNIRB 1+ goals
82%
UNIRB 2+ goals
51%
UNIRB 3+ goals
24%
Jequié 1+ goals
63%
Jequié 2+ goals
26%
Jequié 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UNIRB (draw refunded)
71%
Jequié (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNIRB at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Jequié away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNIRB attack 2.46 + Jequié defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.70

Jequié attack 1.21 + UNIRB defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

UNIRB scores more
54%
level
24%
Jequié scores more
22%

UNIRB at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "UNIRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: UNIRB 3–1 Jequié

UNIRB beat Jequié 3-1 in Baiano - 2 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.