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Jequié vs UNIRB — Baiano - 2 2019

Jequié
Jequié
FT
1 – 1
UNIRB
UNIRB
6/11/2023Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 5Estádio Waldomiro Borges

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Jequié51%
×Draw29%
UNIRB20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jequié
1.30
UNIRB
0.70

Jequié creates 86% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

creates per match

Jequié
1.44
UNIRB
0.58

allows per match

Jequié
0.81
UNIRB
1.17

finishing

Jequié+0.00on par
UNIRB+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jequié ↓

UNIRB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Jequié or draw
80%
Jequié or UNIRB
71%
Draw or UNIRB
49%

Winning margin

Jequié wins by 2+
24%
UNIRB wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jequié 1+ goals
73%
Jequié 2+ goals
37%
Jequié 3+ goals
14%
UNIRB 1+ goals
50%
UNIRB 2+ goals
16%
UNIRB 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jequié (draw refunded)
72%
UNIRB (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jequié at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

UNIRB away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jequié attack 1.44 + UNIRB defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

UNIRB attack 0.58 + Jequié defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jequié scores more
51%
level
29%
UNIRB scores more
20%

Jequié at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jequié will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jequié 1 – 1 UNIRB

Jequié and UNIRB drew 1-1 in Baiano - 2 on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Waldomiro Borges in Jequié, Bahia.