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Unionistas de Salamanca vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
11/23/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Pistas del Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca34%
×Draw27%
UD Logroñés38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.19
UD Logroñés
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.47
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.47
UD Logroñés
0.91

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
62%
Unionistas de Salamanca or UD Logroñés
73%
Draw or UD Logroñés
66%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
14%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
70%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
33%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
12%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
72%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
36%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
47%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.47 + UD Logroñés defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
34%
level
27%
UD Logroñés scores more
38%

UD Logroñés at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unionistas de Salamanca 1 – 4 UD Logroñés

UD Logroñés beat Unionistas de Salamanca 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Pistas del Helmántico in Salamanca.