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UD Logroñés vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
CANC
00:00
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
4/12/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

UD Logroñés46%
×Draw27%
Unionistas de Salamanca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.40
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.00

UD Logroñés creates 40% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 13 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.18
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.31

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.62

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
73%
UD Logroñés or Unionistas de Salamanca
73%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
54%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
22%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
75%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
41%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
17%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
63%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
26%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
63%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.18 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.31 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
46%
level
27%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
27%

UD Logroñés at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Logroñés face Unionistas de Salamanca (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with UD Logroñés hosting Unionistas de Salamanca. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

UD Logroñés host Unionistas de Salamanca at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.