Unionistas de Salamanca 1–0 SS Reyes

Unionistas de Salamanca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SS Reyes

3/5/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca50%

×Draw27%

SS Reyes23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unionistas de SalamancaExpected goals in this matchSS Reyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.85

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.40

SS Reyes

0.85

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 65% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 53 away

1.44

creates per match

0.92

0.78

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.44

SS Reyes

0.92

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.78

SS Reyes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

SS Reyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw

77%

Unionistas de Salamanca or SS Reyes

73%

Draw or SS Reyes

50%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

24%

SS Reyes wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

75%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

41%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

17%

SS Reyes 1+ goals

57%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

21%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

69%

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

SS Reyes away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + SS Reyes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

SS Reyes attack 0.92 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

50%

level

27%

SS Reyes scores more

23%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff