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SS Reyes vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SS Reyes
SS Reyes
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
5/13/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SS Reyes34%
×Draw29%
Unionistas de Salamanca37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Reyes
1.07
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 106 away

creates per match

SS Reyes
0.88
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

SS Reyes
1.33
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw
63%
SS Reyes or Unionistas de Salamanca
71%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
66%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+
13%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals
66%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
29%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
9%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
67%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
31%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)
48%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SS Reyes scores more
34%
level
29%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
37%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: SS Reyes 1–2 Unionistas de Salamanca

Unionistas de Salamanca beat SS Reyes 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.