Unionistas de Salamanca 2–2 Ponferradina

Unionistas de Salamanca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ponferradina

12/8/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Reina Sofia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca42%

×Draw30%

Ponferradina27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unionistas de SalamancaExpected goals in this matchPonferradina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.86

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.15

Ponferradina

0.86

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 34% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 57 away

1.44

creates per match

0.95

0.78

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.44

Ponferradina

0.95

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.78

Ponferradina

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Ponferradina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw

73%

Unionistas de Salamanca or Ponferradina

70%

Draw or Ponferradina

58%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

18%

Ponferradina wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

68%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

32%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

11%

Ponferradina 1+ goals

58%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

21%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

61%

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

42%

level

30%

Ponferradina scores more

27%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff