Ponferradina 1–1 Unionistas de Salamanca

Ponferradina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

2/10/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ponferradina48%

×Draw27%

Unionistas de Salamanca24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PonferradinaExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.90

Ponferradina

1.39

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.90

Ponferradina creates 54% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 106 away

1.51

creates per match

0.91

0.89

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ponferradina

1.51

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.91

allows per match

Ponferradina

0.89

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw

76%

Ponferradina or Unionistas de Salamanca

73%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

52%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+

23%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals

75%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

40%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

16%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

59%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

23%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

66%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ponferradina scores more

48%

level

27%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

24%

Ponferradina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff