Unionistas de Salamanca 2–1 Ourense CF

Unionistas de Salamanca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ourense CF

Moisés Rodríguez 86' (OG)

Álex Zalaya 66' (OG)

Xesc Fullana 25'

2/14/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca51%

×Draw28%

Ourense CF21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unionistas de SalamancaExpected goals in this matchOurense CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.76

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.35

Ourense CF

0.76

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 78% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 38 away

1.44

creates per match

0.74

0.78

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.44

Ourense CF

0.74

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.78

Ourense CF

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Ourense CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw

79%

Unionistas de Salamanca or Ourense CF

72%

Draw or Ourense CF

49%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

24%

Ourense CF wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

74%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

39%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

15%

Ourense CF 1+ goals

53%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

18%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

71%

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Ourense CF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ourense CF attack 0.74 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

51%

level

28%

Ourense CF scores more

21%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Xesc Fullana

46'

Iñaki González← Jordi Tur

46'

Iván Moreno← Pau Martínez

55'

E. Verges

57'

F. Carmona

61'

Gorka Santamaría← Carlos de la Nava

61'

Pablo García← Dani García

63'

J. Ramos

64'

Javier Carbonell← G. Di Renzo

64'

Juanma Bravo← Jerin Ramos

66'

Álex ZalayaOwn goal

68'

G. Santamaria

71'

Alberto Gil← Fran Carmona

71'

Moisés Rodríguez← Álex Gil

77'

David Rabadán← Chuca

84'

Josema Raigal← Ángel Sánchez

86'

Moisés RodríguezOwn goal

88'

J. Carbonell

88'

I. Martinez

Unionistas

Ourense

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Manager: Daniel Llácer

46'▲Iñaki González←▼Jordi Tur

46'▲Iván Moreno←▼Pau Martínez

61'▲Gorka Santamaría←▼Carlos de la Nava

61'▲Pablo García←▼Dani García

77'▲David Rabadán←▼Chuca

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

GonzálezMorenoSantamaríaGarcíaRabadánOrtuñoRastrojoCoronasGómez

Manager: Pablo López

64'▲Javier Carbonell←▼G. Di Renzo

64'▲Juanma Bravo←▼Jerin Ramos

71'▲Alberto Gil←▼Fran Carmona

71'▲Moisés Rodríguez←▼Álex Gil

84'▲Josema Raigal←▼Ángel Sánchez

Ourense CF substitutes

CarbonellBravoGilRodríguezRaigalAndradaGuillénBlesaNoriegaTeijoPrada