Ourense CF 2–2 Unionistas de Salamanca

Ourense CF

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

Javier Carbonell 87', 83'

Dani García 74'

Carlos de la Nava 53'

10/5/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ourense CF43%

×Draw28%

Unionistas de Salamanca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ourense CFExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.02

Ourense CF

1.31

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.02

Ourense CF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 106 away

1.34

creates per match

0.91

1.13

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ourense CF

1.34

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.91

allows per match

Ourense CF

1.13

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw

71%

Ourense CF or Unionistas de Salamanca

72%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

57%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+

20%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals

73%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

38%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

14%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

64%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

27%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

60%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.34 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Ourense CF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ourense CF scores more

43%

level

28%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

29%

Ourense CF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

G. Santamaria

53'

Carlos de la Nava

65'

Álex Gil← Fernando Andrada

65'

Javier Carbonell← Jairo Noriega

67'

Dani García← Gorka Santamaría

73'

C. de la Nava

74'

Dani García

75'

Iván del Olmo← Álex Zalaya

75'

Jordi Tur← Varo Gómez

75'

Pau Martínez← David Rabadán

83'

Juanma Bravo← Moisés Rodríguez

83'

Javier Carbonell

87'

Iván Moreno← Carlos de la Nava

87'

Raúl Tavares← Jonny Arriba

87'

Javier Carbonell

90+4'

E. Verges

90+5'

A. Pascual

Ourense

Unionistas

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Rubén Domínguez

65'▲Álex Gil←▼Fernando Andrada

65'▲Javier Carbonell←▼Jairo Noriega

75'▲Iván del Olmo←▼Álex Zalaya

83'▲Juanma Bravo←▼Moisés Rodríguez

Ourense CF substitutes

GilCarbonellOlmoBravoSánchezCarmonaRaigalMarquetaPradaFullana

Manager: Daniel Llácer

67'▲Dani García←▼Gorka Santamaría

75'▲Jordi Tur←▼Varo Gómez

75'▲Pau Martínez←▼David Rabadán

87'▲Iván Moreno←▼Carlos de la Nava

87'▲Raúl Tavares←▼Jonny Arriba

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

GarcíaTurMartínezMorenoTavaresGarcía-DieCoronasSerranoWitmer

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Ourense CF 2–2 Unionistas de Salamanca

Ourense CF and Unionistas de Salamanca drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 5, 2024.

Goals: Carlos de la Nava (53'), Dani García (74'), Javier Carbonell (83', 87').

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.

Ourense CF vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Ourense CF 2–2 Unionistas de Salamanca