Unionistas de Salamanca 2–0 Internacional de Madrid

Unionistas de Salamanca

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Cris Montes 57'

De Miguel 24'

1/26/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca53%

×Draw27%

Internacional de Madrid20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unionistas de SalamancaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.77

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.43

Internacional de Madrid

0.77

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 86% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 33 away

1.44

creates per match

0.76

0.78

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.44

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.78

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw

80%

Unionistas de Salamanca or Internacional de Madrid

73%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

47%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

26%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

76%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

42%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

17%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

54%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

18%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

72%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.43

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

53%

level

27%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

20%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

50'

54'

57'

57'

60'

63'

Kenneth Soler← Álex Zambrano

63'

Pitu← Alberto Gil

69'

Rayco Rodríguez← Íñigo Muñoz

76'

Edu Cortina← Luis Acosta

76'

Pitu Doncel← De Miguel

76'

Antonio Marín← Manu Sánchez

78'

Álex Masogo← Álvaro Martín

78'

Álvaro Montero← David Barral

82'

Pitu

82'

Pablo Espina← De la Nava

Unionistas

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Miguel

Manager: Dani Mori

69'▲Rayco Rodríguez←▼Íñigo Muñoz

76'▲Edu Cortina←▼Luis Acosta

76'▲Pitu Doncel←▼De Miguel

76'▲Antonio Marín←▼Manu Sánchez

82'▲Pablo Espina←▼De la Nava

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

RodríguezCortinaDoncelMarínEspinaHerreraBlochMierAlonsoMiguelitoCruzFaria

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

63'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Álex Zambrano

63'▲Pitu←▼Alberto Gil

78'▲Álex Masogo←▼Álvaro Martín

78'▲Álvaro Montero←▼David Barral

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

SolerPituMasogoMonteroHerreroExpósitoKolderiuGonzálezArribas