Internacional de Madrid 0–0 Unionistas de Salamanca

Internacional de Madrid

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

10/31/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid48%

×Draw26%

Unionistas de Salamanca26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.07

Internacional de Madrid

1.54

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.07

Internacional de Madrid creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 106 away

1.82

creates per match

0.91

1.24

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.91

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

74%

Internacional de Madrid or Unionistas de Salamanca

74%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

52%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

24%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

79%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

45%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

20%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

66%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

29%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

65%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

48%

level

26%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

26%

Internacional de Madrid at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

M. Sanchez

59'

Kenneth Soler← Adrián Mance

66'

Antonio Marín← Manu Sánchez

71'

Rubén Ramos← Alberto Gil

78'

Cris Montes← Pablo Espina

78'

De la Nava← Pitu Doncel

78'

Luis Acosta← Héctor Nespral

86'

De Miguel← Íñigo Muñoz

90+3'

S. Brulmans← Reguera

Internacional

Unionistas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

59'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Adrián Mance

71'▲Rubén Ramos←▼Alberto Gil

90+3'▲S. Brulmans←▼Reguera

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

SolerRamosBrulmansMasogoSiuKolderiuPituBlázquezGonzález

Manager: Dani Mori

66'▲Antonio Marín←▼Manu Sánchez

78'▲Cris Montes←▼Pablo Espina

78'▲De la Nava←▼Pitu Doncel

78'▲Luis Acosta←▼Héctor Nespral

86'▲De Miguel←▼Íñigo Muñoz

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

MarínMontesNavaAcostaMiguelAwuduHerreraPereiroCortinaBlochMierLama

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Unionistas de Salamanca

Internacional de Madrid and Unionistas de Salamanca drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Unionistas de Salamanca