Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unionistas de Salamanca vs CF Talavera — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
CF Talavera
CF Talavera
1/24/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Reina Sofia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca53%
×Draw26%
CF Talavera21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.54
CF Talavera
0.86

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 79% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 54 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
CF Talavera
0.94

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
CF Talavera
1.65

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
CF Talavera+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

CF Talavera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
79%
Unionistas de Salamanca or CF Talavera
74%
Draw or CF Talavera
47%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
28%
CF Talavera wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
79%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
45%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
20%
CF Talavera 1+ goals
58%
CF Talavera 2+ goals
21%
CF Talavera 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
72%
CF Talavera (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

CF Talavera away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + CF Talavera defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

CF Talavera attack 0.94 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
53%
level
26%
CF Talavera scores more
21%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unionistas de Salamanca vs CF Talavera

Unionistas de Salamanca beat CF Talavera 5-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 24, 2026.

The match was played at Reina Sofia in Salamanca.