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CF Talavera vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

CF Talavera
CF Talavera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
11/16/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

CF Talavera38%
×Draw29%
Unionistas de Salamanca32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Talavera
1.15
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.03

CF Talavera creates 12% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 106 away

creates per match

CF Talavera
1.02
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

CF Talavera
1.15
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

CF Talavera+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Talavera ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CF Talavera or draw
68%
CF Talavera or Unionistas de Salamanca
71%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
62%

Winning margin

CF Talavera wins by 2+
16%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CF Talavera 1+ goals
68%
CF Talavera 2+ goals
32%
CF Talavera 3+ goals
11%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
64%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
28%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CF Talavera (draw refunded)
54%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Talavera at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Talavera attack 1.02 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + CF Talavera defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CF Talavera scores more
38%
level
29%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
32%

CF Talavera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CF Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: CF Talavera 0–1 Unionistas de Salamanca

Unionistas de Salamanca beat CF Talavera 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Prado in Talavera de la Reina.