Unionistas de Salamanca 4–1 Barcelona B

Unionistas de Salamanca

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Barcelona B

Jorge Rastrojo 76'

Mario Losada 45'

Slavy 19', 9'

Percan 72'

4/14/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca44%

×Draw27%

Barcelona B30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unionistas de SalamancaExpected goals in this matchBarcelona B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.11

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.41

Barcelona B

1.11

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 38 away

1.44

creates per match

1.45

0.78

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.44

Barcelona B

1.45

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.78

Barcelona B

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Barcelona B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw

70%

Unionistas de Salamanca or Barcelona B

73%

Draw or Barcelona B

56%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

21%

Barcelona B wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

76%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

41%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

17%

Barcelona B 1+ goals

67%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

30%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

60%

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Barcelona B away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Barcelona B defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Barcelona B attack 1.45 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

44%

level

27%

Barcelona B scores more

30%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

9'

19'

26'

45'

46'

46'

Trilli← Pau Prim

60'

M. Losada

68'

Guille Fernández← Moha

69'

Pelayo Fernández← M. Faye

72'

Jorge Rastrojo← Mario Losada

72'

Juanito Serrano← Alfred Planas

72'

Percan

76'

Jorge Rastrojo

78'

Asier Teijeira← Varo Gómez

78'

Ramiro Mayor← Slavy

82'

Alexis Olmedo← Trilli

83'

Héctor Nespral← Jordi Tur

Unionistas

Barcelona

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Losada

⚽2

▼

Slavy

Manager: Dani Ponz

72'▲Jorge Rastrojo←▼Mario Losada

72'▲Juanito Serrano←▼Alfred Planas

78'▲Asier Teijeira←▼Varo Gómez

78'▲Ramiro Mayor←▼Slavy

83'▲Héctor Nespral←▼Jordi Tur

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

RastrojoSerranoTeijeiraMayorNespralNietoJiménezVillarCacharrón

Manager: R. Márquez

46'▲Percan←▼N. Darvich

46'▲Trilli←▼Pau Prim

68'▲Guille Fernández←▼Moha

69'▲Pelayo Fernández←▼M. Faye

82'▲Alexis Olmedo←▼Trilli

Barcelona B substitutes

PercanTrilliFernándezFernándezOlmedoSánchezCuéllarRománVidal

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Unionistas de Salamanca 4–1 Barcelona B

Unionistas de Salamanca beat Barcelona B 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 14, 2024.

Goals: Slavy (9', 19'), Mario Losada (45'), Percan (72'), Jorge Rastrojo (76').

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía in Salamanca.

Unionistas de Salamanca vs Barcelona B — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Unionistas de Salamanca 4–1 Barcelona B