Barcelona B 2–1 Unionistas de Salamanca

Barcelona B

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Unionistas de Salamanca

Raúl Dacosta 89'

Alan Godoy 67'

Gorka Santamaría 45+1'

5/24/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Barcelona B44%

×Draw27%

Unionistas de Salamanca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.07

Barcelona B

1.39

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.07

Barcelona B creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 106 away

1.50

creates per match

0.91

1.24

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Barcelona B

1.50

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.91

allows per match

Barcelona B

1.24

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw

71%

Barcelona B or Unionistas de Salamanca

73%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

56%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+

21%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals

75%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

40%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

16%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

66%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

29%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

60%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.50 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Barcelona B defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barcelona B scores more

44%

level

27%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

29%

Barcelona B at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

P. Soma

14'

Gorka Santamaría← Carlos de la Nava

20'

J. Virgili

45'

Bikoue

45+1'

Gorka Santamaría

58'

Guille Fernández← P. Soma

63'

I. Martinez

64'

Dani García← Pau Martínez

64'

Varo Gómez← Jonny Arriba

65'

R. Mayor

67'

Alan Godoy

73'

Raúl Dacosta← Sergi Domínguez

73'

Jorge Rastrojo← Iván Moreno

77'

M. Serrano

81'

Percan← Alan Godoy

81'

Rubén López← Aleix Garrido

81'

83'

83'

89'

89'

Barcelona

Unionistas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Sergi Milà

58'▲Guille Fernández←▼P. Soma

73'▲Raúl Dacosta←▼Sergi Domínguez

81'▲Percan←▼Alan Godoy

81'▲Rubén López←▼Aleix Garrido

81'▲Trilli←▼Landry Farré

Barcelona B substitutes

FernándezDacostaPercanLópezTrilliIssahCuencaKochenOduroAnayaPieraDarvich

Manager: J. Acciari

14'▲Gorka Santamaría←▼Carlos de la Nava

64'▲Dani García←▼Pau Martínez

64'▲Varo Gómez←▼Jonny Arriba

73'▲Jorge Rastrojo←▼Iván Moreno

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

SantamaríaGarcíaGómezRastrojoSánchezOrtuñoParraCoronasGarcía

Match Recap: Barcelona B vs Unionistas de Salamanca

Barcelona B beat Unionistas de Salamanca 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 24, 2025.

Goals: Gorka Santamaría (45+1'), Alan Godoy (67'), Raúl Dacosta (89').

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.

Barcelona B vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Barcelona B vs Unionistas de Salamanca