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Unionistas de Salamanca vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Badajoz
Badajoz
11/20/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Unionistas de Salamanca51%
×Draw28%
Badajoz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.35
Badajoz
0.77

Unionistas de Salamanca creates 75% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 37 away

creates per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
1.44
Badajoz
0.76

allows per match

Unionistas de Salamanca
0.78
Badajoz
1.27

finishing

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unionistas de Salamanca ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Unionistas de Salamanca or draw
79%
Unionistas de Salamanca or Badajoz
72%
Draw or Badajoz
49%

Winning margin

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
24%
Badajoz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
74%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
39%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
15%
Badajoz 1+ goals
54%
Badajoz 2+ goals
18%
Badajoz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
70%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unionistas de Salamanca at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 107 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 1.44 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Badajoz attack 0.76 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
51%
level
28%
Badajoz scores more
21%

Unionistas de Salamanca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Unionistas de Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unionistas de Salamanca vs Badajoz

Unionistas de Salamanca and Badajoz drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Reina Sofía in Salamanca.