Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Badajoz vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Badajoz
Badajoz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
3/26/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Badajoz43%
×Draw29%
Unionistas de Salamanca28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz
1.23
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.92

Badajoz creates 34% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 106 away

creates per match

Badajoz
1.18
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Badajoz
0.92
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw
72%
Badajoz or Unionistas de Salamanca
71%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
57%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+
19%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals
71%
Badajoz 2+ goals
35%
Badajoz 3+ goals
13%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
60%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
23%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)
61%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 1.18 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Badajoz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Badajoz scores more
43%
level
29%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
28%

Badajoz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Badajoz vs Unionistas de Salamanca

Badajoz beat Unionistas de Salamanca 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.