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Union Vöcklamarkt vs St. Anna — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
St. Anna
St. Anna
7/28/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 1Sportzentrum Union Volksbank Vöcklamarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Union Vöcklamarkt50%
×Draw23%
St. Anna27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.80
St. Anna
1.28

Union Vöcklamarkt creates 41% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

creates per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.70
St. Anna
1.26

allows per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.30
St. Anna
1.90

finishing

Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par
St. Anna+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Vöcklamarkt ↓

St. Anna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Union Vöcklamarkt or draw
73%
Union Vöcklamarkt or St. Anna
77%
Draw or St. Anna
50%

Winning margin

Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
27%
St. Anna wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
83%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
54%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
27%
St. Anna 1+ goals
72%
St. Anna 2+ goals
37%
St. Anna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
64%
St. Anna (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Vöcklamarkt at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.30 · 91 matches

St. Anna away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.90 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.70 + St. Anna defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.80

St. Anna attack 1.26 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
50%
level
23%
St. Anna scores more
27%

Union Vöcklamarkt at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Vöcklamarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Vöcklamarkt vs St. Anna

Union Vöcklamarkt beat St. Anna 3-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Union Volksbank Vöcklamarkt in Vöcklamarkt.