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St. Anna vs Union Vöcklamarkt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

St. Anna
St. Anna
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
3/22/2025Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 19STAHLBAU MÜLLER ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

St. Anna47%
×Draw22%
Union Vöcklamarkt31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Anna
1.96
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.54

St. Anna creates 27% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 91 away

creates per match

St. Anna
1.79
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.26

allows per match

St. Anna
1.82
Union Vöcklamarkt
2.12

finishing

St. Anna+0.00on par
Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Anna ↓

Union Vöcklamarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

St. Anna or draw
69%
St. Anna or Union Vöcklamarkt
78%
Draw or Union Vöcklamarkt
53%

Winning margin

St. Anna wins by 2+
27%
Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

St. Anna 1+ goals
86%
St. Anna 2+ goals
58%
St. Anna 3+ goals
31%
Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
79%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
45%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

St. Anna (draw refunded)
61%
Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Anna at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.82 · 90 matches

Union Vöcklamarkt away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Anna attack 1.79 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.96

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.26 + St. Anna defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

St. Anna scores more
47%
level
22%
Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
31%

St. Anna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "St. Anna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: St. Anna 4–3 Union Vöcklamarkt

St. Anna beat Union Vöcklamarkt 4-3 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at STAHLBAU MÜLLER ARENA in Aigen.