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Union Vöcklamarkt vs Gurten — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gurten
Gurten
1/16/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Union Vöcklamarkt29%
×Draw28%
Gurten43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.04
Gurten
1.33

Gurten creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
0.75
Gurten
1.42

allows per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.25
Gurten
1.33

finishing

Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Vöcklamarkt ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Union Vöcklamarkt or draw
57%
Union Vöcklamarkt or Gurten
72%
Draw or Gurten
71%

Winning margin

Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
11%
Gurten wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
65%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
28%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
9%
Gurten 1+ goals
74%
Gurten 2+ goals
38%
Gurten 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
40%
Gurten (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Vöcklamarkt at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 0.75 + Gurten defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Gurten attack 1.42 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
29%
level
28%
Gurten scores more
43%

Gurten at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Vöcklamarkt vs Gurten

Gurten beat Union Vöcklamarkt 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 16, 2026.