Gurten 1–2 Union Vöcklamarkt: Result & Stats

Gurten

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Union Vöcklamarkt

8/5/2023

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 2Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Gurten58%

×Draw22%

Union Vöcklamarkt20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GurtenExpected goals in this matchUnion Vöcklamarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.04

Gurten

1.93

Union Vöcklamarkt

1.04

Gurten creates 86% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 91 away

1.74

creates per match

1.26

0.82

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Gurten

1.74

Union Vöcklamarkt

1.26

allows per match

Gurten

0.82

Union Vöcklamarkt

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par

Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Union Vöcklamarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gurten or draw

80%

Gurten or Union Vöcklamarkt

78%

Draw or Union Vöcklamarkt

42%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+

34%

Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals

85%

Gurten 2+ goals

57%

Gurten 3+ goals

30%

Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals

65%

Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals

28%

Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)

74%

Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 106 matches

Union Vöcklamarkt away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.74 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.93

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.26 + Gurten defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gurten scores more

58%

level

22%

Union Vöcklamarkt scores more

20%

Gurten at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff