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Union Vöcklamarkt vs ASK Klagenfurt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
5/17/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 27Sportzentrum Union Volksbank Vöcklamarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Union Vöcklamarkt45%
×Draw24%
ASK Klagenfurt32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.71
ASK Klagenfurt
1.41

Union Vöcklamarkt creates 21% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 25 away

creates per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.70
ASK Klagenfurt
1.52

allows per match

Union Vöcklamarkt
1.30
ASK Klagenfurt
1.72

finishing

Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par
ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Vöcklamarkt ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Union Vöcklamarkt or draw
68%
Union Vöcklamarkt or ASK Klagenfurt
76%
Draw or ASK Klagenfurt
55%

Winning margin

Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
23%
ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
82%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
51%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
24%
ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
76%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
41%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
58%
ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Vöcklamarkt at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.30 · 91 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.70 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.52 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
45%
level
24%
ASK Klagenfurt scores more
32%

Union Vöcklamarkt at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Vöcklamarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Vöcklamarkt vs ASK Klagenfurt

Union Vöcklamarkt beat ASK Klagenfurt 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Union Volksbank Vöcklamarkt in Vöcklamarkt.