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ASK Klagenfurt vs Union Vöcklamarkt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
10/15/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 12ASK-Sportanlage Fischl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

ASK Klagenfurt52%
×Draw22%
Union Vöcklamarkt27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASK Klagenfurt
2.04
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.42

ASK Klagenfurt creates 44% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 91 away

creates per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.95
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.26

allows per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.57
Union Vöcklamarkt
2.12

finishing

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASK Klagenfurt ↓

Union Vöcklamarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ASK Klagenfurt or draw
73%
ASK Klagenfurt or Union Vöcklamarkt
78%
Draw or Union Vöcklamarkt
48%

Winning margin

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
30%
Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
87%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
60%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
33%
Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
76%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
41%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
66%
Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Union Vöcklamarkt away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.95 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.04

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.26 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ASK Klagenfurt scores more
52%
level
22%
Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
27%

ASK Klagenfurt at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: ASK Klagenfurt 3–1 Union Vöcklamarkt

ASK Klagenfurt beat Union Vöcklamarkt 3-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at ASK-Sportanlage Fischl in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.