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Unión Viera vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Unión Viera
Unión Viera
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
12/17/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Estadio Alfonso Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Unión Viera27%
×Draw27%
UD San Fernando46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Viera
1.01
UD San Fernando
1.40

UD San Fernando creates 39% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 76 away

creates per match

Unión Viera
1.05
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Unión Viera
1.53
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Unión Viera+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Viera ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Unión Viera or draw
54%
Unión Viera or UD San Fernando
73%
Draw or UD San Fernando
73%

Winning margin

Unión Viera wins by 2+
10%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Unión Viera 1+ goals
64%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
27%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
8%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
75%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
41%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Unión Viera (draw refunded)
37%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Viera at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Viera attack 1.05 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Unión Viera defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Unión Viera scores more
27%
level
27%
UD San Fernando scores more
46%

UD San Fernando at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Unión Viera 0 – 3 UD San Fernando

UD San Fernando beat Unión Viera 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 17, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Silva in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.