UD San Fernando 4–1 Unión Viera: Result & Stats

UD San Fernando

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Unión Viera

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UD San Fernando65%

×Draw21%

Unión Viera14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD San FernandoExpected goals in this matchUnión Viera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.79

UD San Fernando

1.96

Unión Viera

0.79

UD San Fernando creates 148% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

1.99

creates per match

0.87

0.71

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

UD San Fernando

1.99

Unión Viera

0.87

allows per match

UD San Fernando

0.71

Unión Viera

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Unión Viera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

Unión Viera →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw

86%

UD San Fernando or Unión Viera

79%

Draw or Unión Viera

35%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+

40%

Unión Viera wins by 2+

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals

86%

UD San Fernando 2+ goals

58%

UD San Fernando 3+ goals

31%

Unión Viera 1+ goals

55%

Unión Viera 2+ goals

19%

Unión Viera 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)

82%

Unión Viera (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Unión Viera away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + Unión Viera defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Unión Viera attack 0.87 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

UD San Fernando scores more

65%

level

21%

Unión Viera scores more

14%

UD San Fernando at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff