Unión Viera 0–1 Lanzarote: Result & Stats

Unión Viera

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lanzarote

11/23/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 12Estadio Alfonso Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Unión Viera32%

×Draw27%

Lanzarote41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión VieraExpected goals in this matchLanzarote

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.36

Unión Viera

1.17

Lanzarote

1.36

Lanzarote creates 16% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 108 away

1.05

creates per match

1.20

1.53

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Unión Viera

1.05

Lanzarote

1.20

allows per match

Unión Viera

1.53

Lanzarote

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Viera+0.00on par

Lanzarote+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Viera ↓

Lanzarote →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Unión Viera or draw

59%

Unión Viera or Lanzarote

73%

Draw or Lanzarote

68%

Winning margin

Unión Viera wins by 2+

13%

Lanzarote wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Unión Viera 1+ goals

69%

Unión Viera 2+ goals

33%

Unión Viera 3+ goals

11%

Lanzarote 1+ goals

74%

Lanzarote 2+ goals

39%

Lanzarote 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Unión Viera (draw refunded)

44%

Lanzarote (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Viera at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

Lanzarote away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Viera attack 1.05 + Lanzarote defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lanzarote attack 1.20 + Unión Viera defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Unión Viera scores more

32%

level

27%

Lanzarote scores more

41%

Lanzarote at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff