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Lanzarote vs Unión Viera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Lanzarote
Lanzarote
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Unión Viera
Unión Viera
4/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Lanzarote61%
×Draw23%
Unión Viera16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanzarote
1.75
Unión Viera
0.75

Lanzarote creates 133% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 60 away

creates per match

Lanzarote
1.58
Unión Viera
0.87

allows per match

Lanzarote
0.63
Unión Viera
1.93

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par
Unión Viera+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

Unión Viera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw
84%
Lanzarote or Unión Viera
77%
Draw or Unión Viera
39%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+
35%
Unión Viera wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals
83%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
52%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
25%
Unión Viera 1+ goals
53%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
17%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)
80%
Unión Viera (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

Unión Viera away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + Unión Viera defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75

Unión Viera attack 0.87 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lanzarote scores more
61%
level
23%
Unión Viera scores more
16%

Lanzarote at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Lanzarote 4–0 Unión Viera

Lanzarote beat Unión Viera 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández in Tías.