Unión Viera 1–0 Guía: Result & Stats

Unión Viera

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guía

Cristian Barrios 79' (pen)

3/26/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 12Estadio Alfonso Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Unión Viera43%

×Draw25%

Guía32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión VieraExpected goals in this matchGuía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.30

Unión Viera

1.56

Guía

1.30

Unión Viera creates 20% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 14 away

1.05

creates per match

1.07

1.53

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Unión Viera

1.05

Guía

1.07

allows per match

Unión Viera

1.53

Guía

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Viera+0.00on par

Guía+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Viera ↓

Guía →

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Unión Viera or draw

68%

Unión Viera or Guía

75%

Draw or Guía

57%

Winning margin

Unión Viera wins by 2+

22%

Guía wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Unión Viera 1+ goals

79%

Unión Viera 2+ goals

46%

Unión Viera 3+ goals

21%

Guía 1+ goals

73%

Guía 2+ goals

37%

Guía 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Unión Viera (draw refunded)

58%

Guía (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Viera at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

Guía away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Viera attack 1.05 + Guía defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.56

Guía attack 1.07 + Unión Viera defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unión Viera scores more

43%

level

25%

Guía scores more

32%

Unión Viera at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unión Viera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

72'

72'

72'

76'

Michael González← Samuel Xiraxi

79'

Cristian BarriosPenalty

80'

Aythami← Rivero

86'

Fernando Naranjo← Cristian Barrios

86'

Edu Jimenez← Alfredo Vega

Unión

Guía

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Angel Luis

76'▲Michael González←▼Samuel Xiraxi

86'▲Fernando Naranjo←▼Cristian Barrios

86'▲Edu Jimenez←▼Alfredo Vega

Unión Viera substitutes

GonzálezNaranjoJimenez

Manager: Iván Mendoza

67'▲B. Ibarguen←▼Delgado

72'▲David Flaco←▼Luisja

72'▲J. Flores←▼Cristian

72'▲Melo←▼Javi Mejías

80'▲Aythami←▼Rivero

Guía substitutes

IbarguenFlacoFloresMeloAythami