Guía 2–1 Unión Viera: Result & Stats

Guía

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Unión Viera

Jesús Farías 80'

Kilian 38'

Samuel Xiraxi 18' (pen)

10/30/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 3Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía51%

×Draw24%

Unión Viera24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuíaExpected goals in this matchUnión Viera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.08

Guía

1.68

Unión Viera

1.08

Guía creates 56% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

1.43

creates per match

0.87

1.29

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Guía

1.43

Unión Viera

0.87

allows per match

Guía

1.29

Unión Viera

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guía+0.00on par

Unión Viera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

Unión Viera →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Guía or draw

76%

Guía or Unión Viera

76%

Draw or Unión Viera

49%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+

28%

Unión Viera wins by 2+

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals

81%

Guía 2+ goals

50%

Guía 3+ goals

24%

Unión Viera 1+ goals

66%

Unión Viera 2+ goals

29%

Unión Viera 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)

68%

Unión Viera (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Unión Viera away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + Unión Viera defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.68

Unión Viera attack 0.87 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guía scores more

51%

level

24%

Unión Viera scores more

24%

Guía at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Samuel XiraxiPenalty

38'

Kilian

71'

Felipe← Samuel Xiraxi

77'

Jesús Farías← Cristian

78'

Delgado← Omar Díaz

78'

Donovan← Cristian Barrios

78'

J. Flores← Kevin Pérez

80'

Jesús Farías

81'

Eduardo Bolaños← Kilian

Guía

Unión

Guanche

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kilian

Manager: Moisés Díaz

77'▲Jesús Farías←▼Cristian

78'▲Delgado←▼Omar Díaz

81'▲Eduardo Bolaños←▼Kilian

Guía substitutes

FaríasDelgadoBolaños

Manager: Angel Luis

71'▲Felipe←▼Samuel Xiraxi

78'▲Donovan←▼Cristian Barrios

78'▲J. Flores←▼Kevin Pérez

Unión Viera substitutes

FelipeDonovanFlores

Match Recap: Guía vs Unión Viera

Guía beat Unión Viera 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 30, 2020.

Goals: Samuel Xiraxi (18' pen), Kilian (38'), Jesús Farías (80').

The match was played at Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas.

Guía vs Unión Viera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Guía vs Unión Viera