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Unión Viera vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Unión Viera
Unión Viera
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
9/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Estadio Alfonso Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Unión Viera29%
×Draw28%
Atlético Paso44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Viera
1.02
Atlético Paso
1.33

Atlético Paso creates 30% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 59 away

creates per match

Unión Viera
1.05
Atlético Paso
1.12

allows per match

Unión Viera
1.53
Atlético Paso
0.98

finishing

Unión Viera+0.00on par
Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Viera ↓

Atlético Paso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Unión Viera or draw
56%
Unión Viera or Atlético Paso
72%
Draw or Atlético Paso
71%

Winning margin

Unión Viera wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Paso wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Unión Viera 1+ goals
64%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
27%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Paso 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Unión Viera (draw refunded)
40%
Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Viera at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Viera attack 1.05 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Unión Viera defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Unión Viera scores more
29%
level
28%
Atlético Paso scores more
44%

Atlético Paso at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Unión Viera 1–0 Atlético Paso

Unión Viera beat Atlético Paso 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Silva in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.