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Atlético Paso vs Unión Viera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Unión Viera
Unión Viera
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Campo Municipal de El Paso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Atlético Paso65%
×Draw21%
Unión Viera14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Paso
1.96
Unión Viera
0.78

Atlético Paso creates 151% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Atlético Paso
1.98
Unión Viera
0.87

allows per match

Atlético Paso
0.70
Unión Viera
1.93

finishing

Atlético Paso+0.00on par
Unión Viera+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Paso ↓

Unión Viera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Paso or draw
86%
Atlético Paso or Unión Viera
79%
Draw or Unión Viera
35%

Winning margin

Atlético Paso wins by 2+
40%
Unión Viera wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Paso 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
58%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
31%
Unión Viera 1+ goals
54%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
18%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
82%
Unión Viera (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Paso at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Unión Viera away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Paso attack 1.98 + Unión Viera defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Unión Viera attack 0.87 + Atlético Paso defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Atlético Paso scores more
65%
level
21%
Unión Viera scores more
14%

Atlético Paso at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Paso vs Unión Viera

Atlético Paso beat Unión Viera 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de El Paso in El Paso.