Union Titus Petange 1–2 Progres Niederkorn

Union Titus Petange

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Progres Niederkorn

D. Ali 20'

K. Avdusinovic 64'

B. Hend 37' (pen)

8/31/2025

National Division · Round 5Stade Municipal de Petange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Union Titus Petange35%

×Draw25%

Progres Niederkorn40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Titus PetangeExpected goals in this matchProgres Niederkorn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.49

Union Titus Petange

1.38

Progres Niederkorn

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 108 away

1.51

creates per match

1.64

1.34

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Union Titus Petange

1.51

Progres Niederkorn

1.64

allows per match

Union Titus Petange

1.34

Progres Niederkorn

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Titus Petange ↓

Progres Niederkorn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Union Titus Petange or draw

60%

Union Titus Petange or Progres Niederkorn

75%

Draw or Progres Niederkorn

65%

Winning margin

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+

16%

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals

75%

Union Titus Petange 2+ goals

40%

Union Titus Petange 3+ goals

16%

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals

77%

Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals

44%

Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)

47%

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Titus Petange at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.25 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Titus Petange attack 1.51 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.64 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Titus Petange scores more

35%

level

25%

Progres Niederkorn scores more

40%

Progres Niederkorn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

D. Ali↳ R. Goncalves

36'

Diouf I.

37'

B. HendPenalty

46'

K. Avdusinovic← H. Chambon

49'

Diouf I.

51'

Vincent Peugnet

54'

Konan Nguessan

62'

Adrian Ahmetxjekaj

64'

K. Avdusinovic↳ O. Natami

68'

M. Camara← J. Schmid

76'

P. Pereira Mendes← N. Martins

76'

S. Amaadacho← K. Nguessan

80'

Yanis Zodehougan

81'

Ali Dalil

83'

Y. Bouche← A. Ahmetxjekaj

88'

J. Fanoux← S. Arab

90+3'

M. Oger← M. Gilgemann

Possession

Shots

Statistics

UnionProgres

Overview

39%Possession61%

5Total Shots21

1Corners3

7Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots21

1On Target6

4Off Target15

Passing

39%Possession61%

Discipline

7Fouls13

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2