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Progres Niederkorn vs Union Titus Petange — National Division 2018

Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Titus Petange
Union Titus Petange
3/3/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 19Stade Jos Haupert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Progres Niederkorn53%
×Draw23%
Union Titus Petange24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progres Niederkorn
1.85
Union Titus Petange
1.18

Progres Niederkorn creates 57% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 111 away

creates per match

Progres Niederkorn
2.12
Union Titus Petange
1.26

allows per match

Progres Niederkorn
1.10
Union Titus Petange
1.59

finishing

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par
Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progres Niederkorn ↓

Union Titus Petange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Progres Niederkorn or draw
76%
Progres Niederkorn or Union Titus Petange
77%
Draw or Union Titus Petange
47%

Winning margin

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
30%
Union Titus Petange wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
84%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
55%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
28%
Union Titus Petange 1+ goals
69%
Union Titus Petange 2+ goals
33%
Union Titus Petange 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
69%
Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progres Niederkorn at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Union Titus Petange away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progres Niederkorn attack 2.12 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.85

Union Titus Petange attack 1.26 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Progres Niederkorn scores more
53%
level
23%
Union Titus Petange scores more
24%

Progres Niederkorn at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progres Niederkorn vs Union Titus Petange

Progres Niederkorn beat Union Titus Petange 2-1 in National Division on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Jos Haupert in Niedercorn.