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Union Titus Petange vs Marisca Mersch — National Division 2018

Union Titus Petange
Union Titus Petange
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
12/9/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 15Stade Municipal de Pétange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Titus Petange52%
×Draw23%
Marisca Mersch25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Titus Petange
1.83
Marisca Mersch
1.20

Union Titus Petange creates 53% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Union Titus Petange
1.54
Marisca Mersch
1.07

allows per match

Union Titus Petange
1.32
Marisca Mersch
2.13

finishing

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par
Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Titus Petange ↓

Marisca Mersch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Union Titus Petange or draw
75%
Union Titus Petange or Marisca Mersch
77%
Draw or Marisca Mersch
48%

Winning margin

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+
29%
Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals
84%
Union Titus Petange 2+ goals
54%
Union Titus Petange 3+ goals
28%
Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
70%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
34%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)
68%
Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Titus Petange at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.32 · 112 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Titus Petange attack 1.54 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Marisca Mersch attack 1.07 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Union Titus Petange scores more
52%
level
23%
Marisca Mersch scores more
25%

Union Titus Petange at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Union Titus Petange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Titus Petange vs Marisca Mersch

Union Titus Petange beat Marisca Mersch 4-1 in National Division on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Pétange in Pétange.